Retail industry sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) in the US will increase by somewhere between 3.7% and 4.2% this year, forecasts the NRF, which also expects an increase of 8-12% in non-store sales. 

Both figures are up from similar forecasts issued last year, which called for 3.1% retail sales growth and non-store sales growth of 6-9%. Those seem to be have underestimated growth, which ended up at 3.8% last year, per the NRF’s figures.

The 8-12% rise in non-store sales (which include online sales, kiosks, and catalogs, among others) seems slightly below general e-commerce growth trends. Recent data from comScore indicates that online spending was up 17% year-over-year during the 2016 holiday period. (That’s likely a higher growth rate than will be reported for the entire year.)

Mobile commerce, meanwhile, continued its ascent during the holiday period, with a 44% year-over-year rise. Mobile devices accounted for 21% of total digital sales during the holiday period, up from 20% share during Q3 and from 17% share in the 2015 holiday period.

source: National Retail Federation